20 Years Until Online is 50% of Newspaper Revenues

Authored by Peter Krasilovsky on October 26, 2006 - 6:24am.

In the past, financial analysts covering the newspaper industry haven't paid much attention to online results. They're more focused on quarterly results, which don’t have much to do with online. Indeed, despite several years of strong growth from online services, newspapers are still, typically, just getting five percent or so from online.

A new report from Merrill Lynch's Lauren Rich Fine – covered by Editor & Publisher's Jennifer Saba — reinforces the lack of enthusiasm. The analyst Fine figures to be long retired from crunching numbers before newspapers get even half their money from online.

"Even if the rapid [online] growth continues for the next few years, we don’t see online representing over 50 percent of newspaper ad revenues for at least a couple of decades," says Fine (per Saba). Fine's back-of-the-envelope projection assumes double-digit growth for online ad revenues through 2012, eventually slowing to five percent. Meanwhile, print advertising is estimated to decline 1.5% annually.

The only problem with Fine's calculation, of course, is that she can't responsibly incorporate a "tipping point" scenario, where online reaches such a level that print drastically falls off. It is a real problem that is looming for newspapers — especially considering that a single print user continues to be worth 10 to 20 online users. Such a tipping point is bound to happen within ten years, don't you think?

Related Links:
Report: May Be Decades Before Online Sustains Newspapers (E&P)
Bio of Merrill Lynch's Lauren Rich Fine

Note: This article originally appeared on Peter Krasilovsky's blog, Local Onliner. His bio can be viewed here. Additional comments on this post can be viewed here.